REDESIGNING THE ZONING OF FOREST SPECIES IN THE FACE OF CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO

The definition of recommended areas for commercial planting of a forest species necessarily involves a preliminary study of the species' climatic suitability, often based on its thermal and water requirements, using a tool known as climatic zoning. Faced with the climate change scenarios established by the IPCC, doctoral student Daiani Bernardo Pirovani studied the spatial fluctuations of suitability classes for eight commercially important forest species in Espírito Santo. The work compares the current climatic zoning, based on a historical series from 1982-2011, with the zoning for the year 2050.

The results obtained by the student show, among other events, a significant reduction in areas suitable for some species due to increased annual water deficiency, mainly in the northern part of the state, due to rising temperatures and reduced rainfall totals. On the other hand, some regions that are currently considered unsuitable due to thermal deficiency become suitable with the increase in temperature. Using a paired comparison matrix, it was possible not only to detect the reduction or increase in suitable areas, but also the respective spatial fluctuations.

Considering the long duration of forest cultivation cycles, the information generated in the study could be useful for forest planning in the state. Naturally, this study is a first approximation seeking to understand the impact of climate change on forest zoning, and its improvement requires experiments that detail the relationships of species in the soil-atmosphere system, considering in an integrated way the changes in temperature, vapor pressure deficit, soil water availability, and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration.

Further details of the research can be found in Daiani Bernardo Pirovani's doctoral thesis on our website and in the article: Ecological Indicators.